Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eagles 20, Giants 17 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 9. That is a lean: Eagles win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.7 points and 36.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Eagles' strong defense (8th) should limit Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense). Expect Eagles to find it hard going: Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) outranks Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 14 and Eagles by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eagles by about 0.1. The game is on FOX.
More: Giants schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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