Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 22, Jets 17 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Chiefs win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 38.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Expect Jets to find it hard going: Chiefs' strong defense (5th) outranks Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Jets' below-average defense (23rd); that mismatch is where most of Chiefs' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 13 and Chiefs by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 1.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Jets schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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