Matchup analysis
Our model projects 49ers 23, Raiders 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: 49ers win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.3 points and 41.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game).
Expect Raiders to find it hard going: 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th); that mismatch is where most of 49ers' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 12 and 49ers by 22 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour 49ers by about 2.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Raiders schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.