Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 24, Buccaneers 17 at Soldier Field in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.8 points and 41.6 combined points.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Expect Buccaneers to find it hard going: Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) outranks Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense). Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st); that mismatch is where most of Bears' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 10 and Bears by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 4.2. The game is on NBC.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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