Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 24, Bills 17 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 40.8 combined points.
The Bills are 3-0, scoring 33.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.7 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Bills' elite offense (1st of 32, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) meets Vikings' elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bills puts up. Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Bills' below-average defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bills by 10 and Vikings by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 4.1. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
More: Bills schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 9 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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