Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 25, Panthers 23 at Caesars Superdome in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Saints win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.2 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Panthers' projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) against Panthers' below-average defense (27th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Panthers by 15 and Saints by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Panthers would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on FOX.
More: Panthers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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