NFL Week 10 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 10 of the 2026 NFL season has 14 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Chiefs at Falcons (0.2-point margin), the highest projected total is 49ers at Cowboys (48.3 points) and the lowest is Vikings at Packers (37.1). 8 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

Thu, Nov 12, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Commanders20
Giants22
We project Giants 22-20, a 2.5-point margin with 41.9 total points; Giants win 58% of the time.
Our number
NYG by 2.5
Total 41.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — NYG by 2.5 · Total 41.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Giants 58% · total 41.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 9:30 AM ESTFOX
Patriots21
Lions19
We project Patriots 21-19, a 2.1-point margin with 40.5 total points; Patriots win 57% of the time.
Our number
NE by 2.1
Total 40.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — NE by 2.1 · Total 40.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Patriots 57% · total 40.5Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Chiefs20
Falcons20
We project Chiefs 20-20, a 0.2-point margin with 39.6 total points; Chiefs win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 39.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 39.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 51% · total 39.6Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Texans19
Browns18
We project Texans 19-18, a 0.4-point margin with 37.2 total points; Texans win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 37.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 37.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 51% · total 37.2Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Vikings22
Packers16
We project Vikings 22-16, a 6.1-point margin with 37.1 total points; Vikings win 69% of the time.
Our number
MIN by 6.1
Total 37.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 6.1 · Total 37.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 69% · total 37.1Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Jaguars23
Titans18
We project Jaguars 23-18, a 4.6-point margin with 40.5 total points; Jaguars win 65% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 4.6
Total 40.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 4.6 · Total 40.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 65% · total 40.5Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Dolphins18
Colts26
We project Colts 26-18, a 7.7-point margin with 44.5 total points; Colts win 73% of the time.
Our number
IND by 7.7
Total 44.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — IND by 7.7 · Total 44.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Colts 73% · total 44.5Full preview →

Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Panthers23
Saints25
We project Saints 25-23, a 2.2-point margin with 47.8 total points; Saints win 57% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
NO by 2.2
Total 47.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — NO by 2.2 · Total 47.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Saints 57% · total 47.8Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Bills21
Jets22
We project Jets 22-21, a 0.3-point margin with 42.9 total points; Jets win 51% of the time.
Our number
Even
Total 42.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — Even · Total 42.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jets 51% · total 42.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ESTCBS
Seahawks23
Raiders18
We project Seahawks 23-18, a 4.7-point margin with 40.4 total points; Seahawks win 65% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
SEA by 4.7
Total 40.4
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SEA by 4.7 · Total 40.4 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Seahawks 65% · total 40.4Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 4:05 PM ESTCBS
Rams23
Cardinals22
We project Rams 23-22, a 1-point margin with 45 total points; Rams win 53% of the time.
Our number
LA by 1
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LA by 1 · Total 45 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rams 53% · total 45Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 PM ESTFOX
49ers25
Cowboys23
We project 49ers 25-23, a 2.1-point margin with 48.3 total points; 49ers win 57% of the time.
Our number
SF by 2.1
Total 48.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — SF by 2.1 · Total 48.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
49ers 57% · total 48.3Full preview →
Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Steelers21
Bengals22
We project Bengals 22-21, a 1.3-point margin with 42.7 total points; Bengals win 54% of the time.
Our number
CIN by 1.3
Total 42.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CIN by 1.3 · Total 42.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bengals 54% · total 42.7Full preview →
Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Chargers17
Ravens21
We project Ravens 21-17, a 3.9-point margin with 38.1 total points; Ravens win 62% of the time.
Our number
BAL by 3.9
Total 38.1
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BAL by 3.9 · Total 38.1 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ravens 62% · total 38.1Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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