Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 23, Titans 18 at Nissan Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 40.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game).
Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from. Expect Titans to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (4th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 22 and Titans by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Titans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Jaguars schedule · Titans schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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