Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 20, Falcons 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Chiefs win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.2 points and 39.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) against Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th). Chiefs' strong defense (5th) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 17 and Falcons by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Chiefs are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Chiefs schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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