Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 26, Dolphins 18 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Colts win about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.7 points and 44.5 combined points.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Dolphins puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (25th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 9 and Colts by 25 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 5.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Dolphins schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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