Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 22, Packers 16 at Lambeau Field in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 69% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.1 points and 37.1 combined points.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game).
Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Packers' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up. Expect Packers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 23 and Packers by 11 about 80% of the time.
The Packers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Vikings schedule · Packers schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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