Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 23, Cardinals 22 at State Farm Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Rams win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 45 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th). Rams' strong defense (9th) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rams by 18 and Cardinals by 16 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Rams are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Rams schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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