Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 23, Raiders 18 at Allegiant Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.7 points and 40.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game). The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th); that mismatch is where most of Seahawks' projected points come from. Expect Raiders to find it hard going: Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) outranks Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 22 and Raiders by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Raiders get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Seahawks schedule · Raiders schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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