Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 22, Steelers 21 at Paycor Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 42.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game).
Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets Bengals' below-average defense (24th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Steelers puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 16 and Bengals by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Steelers would be favoured by 1.3. The game is on NBC.
More: Steelers schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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