Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ravens 21, Chargers 17 at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Ravens win about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 38.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Expect Chargers to find it hard going: Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) outranks Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 13 and Ravens by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Ravens get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ravens by about 1.3. The game is on ESPN.
More: Chargers schedule · Ravens schedule · all Week 10 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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