Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 24, Colts 21 at Reliant Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Texans win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3 points and 45.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Texans' strong defense (6th) should limit Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense) against Colts' struggling defense (30th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colts by 14 and Texans by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 0.4. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Colts schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.