NFL Week 11 Predictions & Projected Scores (2026)

Updated Oct 2, 2026

Week 11 of the 2026 NFL season has 13 games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Bengals at Commanders (0.5-point margin), the highest projected total is Titans at Cowboys (48.4 points) and the lowest is Steelers at Eagles (37.7). 5 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).

Power rankings · Playoff predictions · How accurate are we?

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Every game

Thu, Nov 19, 8:15 PM ESTPrime Video
Colts21
Texans24
We project Texans 24-21, a 3-point margin with 45.4 total points; Texans win 60% of the time.
Our number
HOU by 3
Total 45.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — HOU by 3 · Total 45.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texans 60% · total 45.4Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Dolphins17
Bills25
We project Bills 25-17, a 7.6-point margin with 41.6 total points; Bills win 73% of the time.
Our number
BUF by 7.6
Total 41.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — BUF by 7.6 · Total 41.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bills 73% · total 41.6Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Saints19
Bears25
We project Bears 25-19, a 6.7-point margin with 43.9 total points; Bears win 70% of the time.
Our number
CHI by 6.7
Total 43.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CHI by 6.7 · Total 43.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bears 70% · total 43.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Titans23
Cowboys25
We project Cowboys 25-23, a 2.2-point margin with 48.4 total points; Cowboys win 57% of the time.
Our number
DAL by 2.2
Total 48.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DAL by 2.2 · Total 48.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cowboys 57% · total 48.4Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Buccaneers22
Lions23
We project Lions 23-22, a 1.1-point margin with 45.3 total points; Lions win 54% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
DET by 1.1
Total 45.2
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DET by 1.1 · Total 45.2 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Lions 54% · total 45.3Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Cardinals18
Chiefs23
We project Chiefs 23-18, a 4.4-point margin with 40.6 total points; Chiefs win 64% of the time.
Our number
KC by 4.4
Total 40.6
Book line
Not posted
Our number — KC by 4.4 · Total 40.6 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chiefs 64% · total 40.6Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTCBS
Jaguars21
Giants17
We project Jaguars 21-17, a 4.8-point margin with 38 total points; Jaguars win 65% of the time.
Our number
JAX by 4.8
Total 38
Book line
Not posted
Our number — JAX by 4.8 · Total 38 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jaguars 65% · total 38Full preview →

Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 PM ESTFOX
Ravens21
Panthers23
We project Panthers 23-21, a 2-point margin with 43.9 total points; Panthers win 57% of the time.
Our number
CAR by 2
Total 43.9
Book line
Not posted
Our number — CAR by 2 · Total 43.9 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Panthers 57% · total 43.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 4:05 PM ESTFOX
Jets20
Chargers21
We project Chargers 21-20, a 0.9-point margin with 40.9 total points; Chargers win 53% of the time.
Indoors (dome).
Our number
LAC by 0.9
Total 40.8
Book line
Not posted
Our number — LAC by 0.9 · Total 40.8 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Chargers 53% · total 40.9Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ESTCBS
Raiders17
Broncos23
We project Broncos 23-17, a 5.7-point margin with 39.3 total points; Broncos win 68% of the time.
Our number
DEN by 5.7
Total 39.3
Book line
Not posted
Our number — DEN by 5.7 · Total 39.3 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Broncos 68% · total 39.3Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 4:25 PM ESTCBS
Steelers17
Eagles20
We project Eagles 20-17, a 3.1-point margin with 37.7 total points; Eagles win 60% of the time.
Our number
PHI by 3.1
Total 37.7
Book line
Not posted
Our number — PHI by 3.1 · Total 37.7 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Eagles 60% · total 37.7Full preview →
Sun, Nov 22, 8:20 PM ESTNBC
Vikings21
49ers17
We project Vikings 21-17, a 4-point margin with 38 total points; Vikings win 63% of the time.
Our number
MIN by 4
Total 38
Book line
Not posted
Our number — MIN by 4 · Total 38 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Vikings 63% · total 38Full preview →
Mon, Nov 23, 8:15 PM ESTESPN
Bengals23
Commanders23
We project Commanders 23-23, a 0.5-point margin with 45.5 total points; Commanders win 52% of the time.
Our number
WAS by 0.5
Total 45.5
Book line
Not posted
Our number — WAS by 0.5 · Total 45.5 | Book line — Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Commanders 52% · total 45.5Full preview →

How these numbers are made

Each team gets offense and defense ratings in points and in expected points added per play, adjusted for opponent strength and started from last season's ratings regressed toward average. Quarterback changes, home field and travel, rest and weather are added with weights fitted on past seasons, and the margin becomes a calibrated win probability. The book line under each game (DraftKings when available, otherwise the consensus or the first book, each named with its source) is neutral market data shown for comparison. See methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.

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