Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chiefs 23, Cardinals 18 at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Chiefs win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 40.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game). The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game).
Expect Cardinals to find it hard going: Chiefs' strong defense (5th) outranks Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense). Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cardinals' struggling defense (28th); that mismatch is where most of Chiefs' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cardinals by 13 and Chiefs by 21 about 80% of the time.
The Chiefs get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Chiefs by about 1.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Cardinals schedule · Chiefs schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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