Matchup analysis
Our model projects Panthers 23, Ravens 21 at Bank of America Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Panthers win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2 points and 43.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game).
Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Ravens' projected points come from. Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense) meets Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Panthers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 15 and Panthers by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Panthers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ravens would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on FOX.
More: Ravens schedule · Panthers schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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