Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 21, Giants 17 at MetLife Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Jaguars win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 38 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th). Jaguars' strong defense (4th) should limit Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 22 and Giants by 12 about 80% of the time.
The Giants get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Jaguars are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Jaguars schedule · Giants schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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