Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 25, Saints 19 at Soldier Field in Week 11. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 43.9 combined points.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 10 and Bears by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bears by about 4.1. The game is on FOX.
More: Saints schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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