Matchup analysis
Our model projects Lions 23, Buccaneers 22 at Ford Field in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Lions win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 45.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Buccaneers by 16 and Lions by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Buccaneers would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Buccaneers schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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