Matchup analysis
Our model projects Chargers 21, Jets 20 at SoFi Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: Chargers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 40.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jets are 1-2, scoring 21.3 and allowing 20.3 points per game (+1 per game). The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game).
Expect Jets to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) outranks Jets' struggling offense (28th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Jets' below-average defense (23rd) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jets by 16 and Chargers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Chargers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Jets would be favoured by 1.7. The game is on FOX.
More: Jets schedule · Chargers schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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