Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 23, Raiders 17 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 11. That is a lean: Broncos win about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 39.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 11 and Broncos by 23 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 3.1. The game is on CBS.
More: Raiders schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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