Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eagles 20, Steelers 17 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11. That is a lean: Eagles win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 37.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game). The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game).
Expect Steelers to find it hard going: Eagles' strong defense (8th) outranks Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) should limit Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Steelers by 14 and Eagles by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Eagles get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eagles by about 0.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Steelers schedule · Eagles schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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