Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 21, 49ers 17 at Estadio Banorte in Week 11. That is a lean: Vikings win about 63% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 38 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game). The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game).
49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) should limit Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense). 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Vikings' elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vikings by 21 and 49ers by 13 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Vikings are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
More: Vikings schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 11 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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