Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 25, Packers 18 at SoFi Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Rams win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 42.7 combined points.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Rams' strong defense (9th) should limit Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) against Packers' below-average defense (22nd).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 10 and Rams by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 4.1. The game is on Netflix.
More: Packers schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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