Matchup analysis
Our model projects Cowboys 22, Eagles 22 at AT&T Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Cowboys win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0 points and 44.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game). The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game).
Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Eagles' projected points come from. Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Eagles' strong defense (8th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cowboys puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 17 and Cowboys by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Cowboys get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Eagles would be favoured by 2.6. The game is on FOX.
More: Eagles schedule · Cowboys schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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