Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 25, Lions 23 at Ford Field in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 47.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Lions' struggling defense (29th). Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th); that mismatch is where most of Lions' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 19 and Lions by 15 about 80% of the time.
The Lions get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Bears schedule · Lions schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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