Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 20, Steelers 20 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Broncos win about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 39.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game). The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) meets Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Broncos puts up. Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Broncos by 17 and Steelers by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Broncos are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Broncos schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.