Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 23, Falcons 16 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.4 points and 38.4 combined points.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Vikings' elite defense (1st) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense). Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) meets Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Vikings puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 10 and Vikings by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 4.8. The game is on FOX.
More: Falcons schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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