Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texans 22, Ravens 19 at Reliant Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Texans win about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.4 points and 40.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Ravens are 2-1, scoring 30.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+4.7 per game). The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game).
Ravens' strong offense (4th of 32, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) meets Texans' strong defense (6th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ravens puts up. Ravens' middle-of-the-pack defense (15th) should limit Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ravens by 14 and Texans by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Texans get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texans by about 0.8. The game is on CBS.
More: Ravens schedule · Texans schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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