Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 21, Raiders 18 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 38.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Raiders are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 18 points per game (+11.3 per game). The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game).
Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) should limit Raiders' below-average offense (23rd of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense). Expect Browns to find it hard going: Raiders' middle-of-the-pack defense (17th) outranks Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Raiders by 15 and Browns by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Raiders would be favoured by 0.3. The game is on FOX.
More: Raiders schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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