Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bengals 23, Saints 21 at Paycor Stadium in Week 12. That is a genuine toss-up: Bengals win about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.1 points and 44.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) against Bengals' below-average defense (24th). Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Saints by 15 and Bengals by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Bengals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Saints would be favoured by 0.5. The game is on CBS.
More: Saints schedule · Bengals schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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