Matchup analysis
Our model projects Colts 25, Giants 19 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Colts win about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 43.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Giants are 2-1, scoring 15.3 and allowing 18.3 points per game (-3 per game). The Colts are 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-6.3 per game).
Giants' struggling offense (29th of 32, worth about 19.8 points against an average defense) meets Colts' struggling defense (30th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Giants puts up. Colts' middle-of-the-pack offense (11th of 32, worth about 24.8 points against an average defense) meets Giants' middle-of-the-pack defense (14th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colts puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Giants by 11 and Colts by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Colts get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colts by about 2.9. The game is on FOX.
More: Giants schedule · Colts schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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