Matchup analysis
Our model projects Jaguars 25, Titans 15 at EverBank Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Jaguars win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10 points and 40.4 combined points.
The Titans are 0-3, scoring 12.3 and allowing 19.7 points per game (-7.4 per game). The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game).
Expect Titans to find it hard going: Jaguars' strong defense (4th) outranks Titans' struggling offense (32nd of 32, worth about 18.3 points against an average defense). Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Titans' below-average defense (26th); that mismatch is where most of Jaguars' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Titans by 7 and Jaguars by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Jaguars get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Jaguars by about 7.4. The game is on CBS.
More: Titans schedule · Jaguars schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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