Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 22, 49ers 18 at Levi's Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Seahawks win about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.4 points and 39.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game). The 49ers are 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+16 per game).
Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets 49ers' middle-of-the-pack defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Seahawks puts up. 49ers' elite offense (3rd of 32, worth about 25.9 points against an average defense) meets Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points 49ers puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Seahawks by 21 and 49ers by 13 about 80% of the time.
The 49ers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Seahawks are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Seahawks schedule · 49ers schedule · all Week 12 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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