Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rams 22, Chiefs 19 at SoFi Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: Rams win about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 40.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Chiefs are 3-0, scoring 29.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+12.6 per game). The Rams are 1-2, scoring 20.3 and allowing 21 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Expect Chiefs to find it hard going: Rams' strong defense (9th) outranks Chiefs' middle-of-the-pack offense (13th of 32, worth about 23.5 points against an average defense). Rams' strong offense (8th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) meets Chiefs' strong defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rams puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chiefs by 14 and Rams by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Rams get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rams by about 0.2. The game is on Prime Video.
More: Chiefs schedule · Rams schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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