Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 22, Bengals 20 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Browns win about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 41.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Bengals are 2-1, scoring 26.7 and allowing 21 points per game (+5.7 per game). The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game).
Bengals' strong offense (9th of 32, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th); that mismatch is where most of Bengals' projected points come from. Expect Browns to find it hard going: Bengals' below-average defense (24th) outranks Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bengals by 15 and Browns by 19 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bengals would be favoured by 1. The game is on CBS.
More: Bengals schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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