Matchup analysis
Our model projects Falcons 23, Lions 22 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Falcons win about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.3 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Lions are 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 31.7 points per game (-0.7 per game). The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Lions' elite offense (2nd of 32, worth about 27.3 points against an average defense) against Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th). Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense) meets Lions' struggling defense (29th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Falcons puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lions by 16 and Falcons by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Falcons get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Lions would be favoured by 1.3. The game is on CBS.
More: Lions schedule · Falcons schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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