Matchup analysis
Our model projects Saints 25, Packers 20 at Caesars Superdome in Week 13. That is a lean: Saints win about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.8 points and 44.6 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Packers are 1-2, scoring 18.7 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-11.6 per game). The Saints are 1-2, scoring 27 and allowing 27.7 points per game (-0.7 per game).
Packers' middle-of-the-pack offense (17th of 32, worth about 22.5 points against an average defense) meets Saints' middle-of-the-pack defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Packers puts up. Saints' below-average offense (20th of 32, worth about 21.9 points against an average defense) meets Packers' below-average defense (22nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Saints puts up.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Packers by 12 and Saints by 22 about 80% of the time.
The Saints get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Saints by about 2.2. The game is on FOX.
More: Packers schedule · Saints schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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