Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 21, Jaguars 20 at Soldier Field in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Bears win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 40.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Jaguars are 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 12 points per game (+15.3 per game). The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Jaguars' strong offense (6th of 32, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense) against Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th). Jaguars' strong defense (4th) should limit Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Jaguars by 16 and Bears by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Bears get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Jaguars would be favoured by 2. The game is on FOX.
More: Jaguars schedule · Bears schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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