Matchup analysis
Our model projects Buccaneers 19, Chargers 18 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Buccaneers win about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.9 points and 37.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Chargers are 0-3, scoring 14.7 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-10.6 per game). The Buccaneers are 0-3, scoring 20.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-5.6 per game).
Buccaneers' below-average defense (21st) should limit Chargers' below-average offense (27th of 32, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). Expect Buccaneers to find it hard going: Chargers' middle-of-the-pack defense (12th) outranks Buccaneers' middle-of-the-pack offense (16th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Chargers by 16 and Buccaneers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Buccaneers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Chargers would be favoured by 1.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Chargers schedule · Buccaneers schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.