Matchup analysis
Our model projects Broncos 24, Dolphins 15 at Empower Field at Mile High in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Broncos win about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.9 points and 39.1 combined points.
The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game). The Broncos are 2-1, scoring 20 and allowing 23.3 points per game (-3.3 per game).
Broncos' strong defense (7th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Broncos' middle-of-the-pack offense (15th of 32, worth about 22.7 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (25th).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Dolphins by 8 and Broncos by 26 about 80% of the time.
The Broncos get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Broncos by about 6.3. The game is on FOX.
More: Dolphins schedule · Broncos schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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