Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eagles 21, Cardinals 21 at State Farm Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Eagles win about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 42.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Eagles are 2-1, scoring 18.3 and allowing 23 points per game (-4.7 per game). The Cardinals are 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 27 points per game (-6 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Eagles' below-average offense (21st of 32, worth about 21.8 points against an average defense) against Cardinals' struggling defense (28th). Eagles' strong defense (8th) should limit Cardinals' middle-of-the-pack offense (18th of 32, worth about 22.4 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Eagles by 17 and Cardinals by 17 about 80% of the time.
The Cardinals get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Eagles are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FOX.
More: Eagles schedule · Cardinals schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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