Matchup analysis
Our model projects Vikings 25, Panthers 18 at U.S. Bank Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Vikings win about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.3 points and 42.5 combined points.
The Panthers are 1-2, scoring 29.7 and allowing 27.7 points per game (+2 per game). The Vikings are 3-0, scoring 23.7 and allowing 13.7 points per game (+10 per game).
Expect Panthers to find it hard going: Vikings' elite defense (1st) outranks Panthers' middle-of-the-pack offense (14th of 32, worth about 23 points against an average defense). Vikings' middle-of-the-pack offense (19th of 32, worth about 22.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Panthers' below-average defense (27th); that mismatch is where most of Vikings' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Panthers by 10 and Vikings by 24 about 80% of the time.
The Vikings get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vikings by about 4.7. The game is on CBS.
More: Panthers schedule · Vikings schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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