Matchup analysis
Our model projects Steelers 20, Texans 19 at Acrisure Stadium in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Steelers win about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 38.5 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
The Texans are 0-3, scoring 18 and allowing 25 points per game (-7 per game). The Steelers are 2-2, scoring 19.3 and allowing 21.8 points per game (-2.5 per game).
Steelers' middle-of-the-pack defense (13th) should limit Texans' below-average offense (22nd of 32, worth about 21.6 points against an average defense). Expect Steelers to find it hard going: Texans' strong defense (6th) outranks Steelers' below-average offense (24th of 32, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texans by 16 and Steelers by 18 about 80% of the time.
The Steelers get about 2.6 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Texans would be favoured by 1.9. The game is on NBC.
More: Texans schedule · Steelers schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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