Matchup analysis
Our model projects Seahawks 27, Cowboys 17 at Lumen Field in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Seahawks win about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.9 points and 43.1 combined points.
The Cowboys are 1-2, scoring 29.3 and allowing 27.3 points per game (+2 per game). The Seahawks are 2-1, scoring 25 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+8.3 per game).
Cowboys' strong offense (5th of 32, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Seahawks' elite defense (2nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Cowboys puts up. Seahawks' strong offense (7th of 32, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Cowboys' struggling defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Seahawks' projected points come from.
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Cowboys by 7 and Seahawks by 27 about 80% of the time.
The Seahawks get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Seahawks by about 7.3. The game is on ESPN / ABC.
More: Cowboys schedule · Seahawks schedule · all Week 13 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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