Matchup analysis
Our model projects Browns 21, Falcons 18 at Huntington Bank Field in Week 14. That is a lean: Browns win about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 38.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
The Falcons are 1-2, scoring 17 and allowing 22.7 points per game (-5.7 per game). The Browns are 3-1, scoring 20.3 and allowing 23.8 points per game (-3.5 per game).
Browns' middle-of-the-pack defense (16th) should limit Falcons' below-average offense (26th of 32, worth about 20.7 points against an average defense). Expect Browns to find it hard going: Falcons' middle-of-the-pack defense (19th) outranks Browns' struggling offense (31st of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Falcons by 14 and Browns by 20 about 80% of the time.
The Browns get about 2.6 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Browns by about 0.6. The game is on CBS.
More: Falcons schedule · Browns schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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