Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bears 24, Dolphins 17 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 14. That is a solid edge: Bears win about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.6 points and 41.4 combined points.
The Bears are 2-1, scoring 29.7 and allowing 17.7 points per game (+12 per game). The Dolphins are 0-3, scoring 12 and allowing 28.7 points per game (-16.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Bears' middle-of-the-pack offense (10th of 32, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Dolphins' below-average defense (25th). Bears' middle-of-the-pack defense (11th) should limit Dolphins' struggling offense (30th of 32, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense).
The NFL is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 10 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bears by 24 and Dolphins by 10 about 80% of the time.
The Dolphins get about 2.6 points for playing at home. The Bears are still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBS.
More: Bears schedule · Dolphins schedule · all Week 14 projections
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.